Ladies and gentlemen, UFC 292 is rapidly approaching. Taking place in the great city of Boston, Massachusetts on August 19th, card features a quite intriguing headliner in a bantamweight title bout between the reigning champ, Aljamain Sterling and the younger, momentum-filled fan favorite, Sean O’Malley.

Now there’s plenty of glaring questions that I think most fans have heading into this one. If you’re anything like myself, you must be asking, “What the hell should I expect out of this main event? Can Aljo handle O’Malley’s sharp striking well enough to find success with his grappling? And is O’Malley competent enough on the mat to survive Aljo? Does O’Malley have the cardio for a 5 round fight?”

While I don’t know for sure what’ll be the outcome, I can provide my take on what I expect out of these two fighters after doing an extensive review of their fight history. Lets get into it.

Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling (22-3-0)

Resume

Aljamain Sterling is a true UFC veteran. Sterling is coming into this fight at 34 years of age and this will be his 19th fight in the UFC. He boasts an impressive record of 15-3-0 within the promotion, including a record of 4-0-0 in 5 round title fights. He’s been battle-tested in both his pre- and post- champion phases of his career and is currently on a 9 fight win streak, with wins numerous UFC greats like Henry Cejudo, TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan (twice), Cory Sandhagen, and Pedro Munhoz. Out of his 3 losses, Sterling lost two of them by split decision to Raphael Assuncao and Bryan Caraway in back-to-back fights. He has only been finished once, which came at about 1 minute into the first round in a fight against Marlon Moraes, by way of a brutal knee to the head.

Aljamain Sterling fighting Henry Cejudo, May 6th, 2023 (via Yahoo Sports)

The defining aspect of Sterling’s UFC resume is his ability to overcome underestimation. Sterling won the belt from beating Petr Yan because of disqualification due to an illegal knee while Sterling was grounded. Prior to this happening in round 4, it was clear that Sterling was losing this fight and has very little energy left to fight. Watching it live, I was convinced a finish was coming and Yan would be awarded the champion status.

Attributes and Style

Aljamain Sterling is a large bantamweight, orthodox style fighter. He is listed to stand at 5’7″ and has told mma press previously that he walks around at approximately 170 lbs outside of fight camp, which is probably about 15-20 lbs more than the average walk-around weight in his weight class. On top of that, Sterling boasts a 71 inch reach, about 4 inches longer than average relative to his height.

Height	5’7″
Weight (approx. walk-around)	170 lbs
Reach	71″
Age	34
Stance	Orthodox

Sterling has a finish rate of 48%. He’s won by knockout 3 times and by submission 8 times.

Wins by Knockout	3
Wins by Submission	8
Wins by Decision	12
Finish Rate	48%

Sterling is generally known to have a wrestling-heavy fighting style where he uses the consistent threat of takedowns to apply a grueling pace on his opponents, averaging 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. He partners this with an awkward, but creative and tricky striking style, as well as black belt level jiu jitsu skills on the mat. Sterling’s striking has proven to be effective; while he doesn’t land an overwhelming amount of significant strikes per minute with 4.78, he is very defensively sound and is difficult to land strikes on, absorbing only 2.37 significant strikes per minute and defending 59% of significant strikes. He is also moderately efficient, with a striking accuracy of 52%. When the fight goes to the ground, Sterling is equally as effective in beating on his opponent with ground and pound strikes, as well as finding submissions at an average rate of 0.80 submissions per 15 minutes. He has plenty of options to submit his opponent in his arsenal, though has a tendency to hunt for the back of his opponents and look for a rear naked choke, which he has 5 of on his professional record, including one against Cory Sandhagen that occurred barely a minute into the fight.

Significant Strikes Landed (per min.)	4.78
Significant Strikes Absorbed (per min.)	2.37
Striking Differential	2.41
Striking Accuracy	52%
Significant Strike Defense	59%
Knockdown Average	0.00
Takedown Average (per 15 min.)	2.02
Takedown Accuracy	25%
Takedown Defense	45%
Average Fight Time	13:36

“Sugar” Sean O’Malley (16-1-0)

Resume:

Sean O’Malley has a total of 9 fights in the UFC, resulting in 7 wins, 1 loss and 1 no contest. He earned his UFC contract through The Ultimate Fighter in 2017, where he earned a viral knockout of Alfred Khashakyan, followed by a Decision win in the finals over Terrion Ware. He then debut in the UFC a year later in 2018, winning a dominant decision over Andre Soukhamthath. Following his debut, O’Malley was suspended from the UFC for two years due to a failed drug test for ostarine. When he returned in 2020, he was successful in regaining all the momentum he had before his suspension by earning two more viral first round knockouts of Jose Quinonez and UFC veteran Eddie Wineland. Following this, O’Malley was given Marlon Vera as his next opponent two months later; a matchup that was intended to happen prior to O’Malley’s suspension. Vera handed O’Malley his first and only professional loss after a leg kick to O’Malley’s perennial nerve, ultimately giving him “drop foot” and rendering him effectively immobile. Vera was able to close the show within the first round with ground strikes. While O’Malley’s hype may have been derailed temporarily from this, he proved his resilience and bounced back with three consecutive knockouts over Thomas Almeida, Kris Moutinho and Raulian Paiva. His Paiva knockout was particularly impressive, showing absolute domination and a flashy finishing flurry, ending it within the first round. This propelled O’Malley into the bantamweight rankings, and he was then matched up with his second ranked opponent in Pedro Munhoz. This fight resulted in a no contest after an eye poke that rendered Munhoz unable to continue in the second round. Despite this, O’Malley was given his latest opponent in a title eliminator against former champion Petr Yan. While Yan has taken a few more losses following this fight, he was nearly at the peak of his standing in the division, just coming off of his two title fights against Sterling. This was the first fight that O’Malley was a betting underdog in, yet he showed he’s capable of performing at the highest level regardless of if he is expected to win. While this was a very close fight and a controversial split decision win, this was a defining moment in O’Malley’s career. This fight showed that he can tune out the pressure of fighting the top echelon of bantamweight fighters and showed that he’s ready for the title shot.

Sean O’Malley fighting Eddie Wineland, June 6th, 2020 (via mmafighting.com)

Attributes and Style: Sean O’Malley is also a large bantamweight, but in a different way than Sterling is. While he has clearly grown into his frame as he’s matured as a fighter, he is still a longer, lankier bantamweight, standing at 5’11” and possessing a 74″ reach. While being much taller and longer than Sterling, O’Malley has stated that he walks around outside of camp at about 155 lbs, therefore being the smaller fighter by weight, but still being about average walk-around weight for his division.

Height	5’11”
Weight (approx. walk-around)	155 lbs
Reach	74″
Age	28
Stance	Switch

O’malley has an impressive finishing rate of 80% in his UFC career thus far; he has 11 knockouts and 1 submission.

Wins by Knockout	11
Wins by Submission	1
Wins by Decision	3
Finish Rate	80%

Stylistically, O’Malley is an absolute technician on his feet. He’s known for his slick boxing and creative ways of inflicting striking damage, including his signature roundhouse kick. He exhibits speed, precision and timing when striking as well as anyone who’s fought in the bantamweight division. This talent, partnered with his athleticism and length makes him a very tough matchup for many fighters.

Statistically, O’Malley boasts impressive stats across the board. He throws plenty of volume, averaging 7.43 strikes per minute, while still having an excellent 3.89 striking differential due to his 62% significant strike defense. His numbers show that his striking exhibits volume, accuracy and efficiency while still not compromising defense at all. His stats show that his striking style is effective, averaging 1.06 knockdowns per 15 minutes. In terms of grappling, he is a bit untested. He has impressive stats in this department as well, with 60% takedown defense and 43% takedown accuracy, though with low takedown volume. While O’Malley may be relatively untested on the mat within his UFC resume, he is known to consistently train brazilian jiu jitsu and holds a brown belt under Augusto Mendes. O’Malley even has a submission victory over mma legend Takanori Gomi in the Quintet: Ultra grappling tournament in 2019.

Significant Strikes Landed (per min.)	7.43
Significant Strikes Absorbed (per min.)	3.54
Striking Differential	3.89
Striking Accuracy	61%
Significant Strike Defense	62%
Knockdown Average	1.06
Takedown Average (per 15 min.)	0.45
Takedown Accuracy	43%
Takedown Defense	60%
Average Fight Time	9:01

The Verdict: At first glance, one might see this matchup and label it as the typical “striker versus grappler” pairing. Sterling is known for his dominant grappling built on a unique combination of wrestling and jiu jitsu, while O’Malley is known for his slick, precise and creative striking. While this is true, I think there’s more to this matchup than that and it’ll show in the fight. While O’Malley is primarily known as a striker, I suspect that his grappling is more developed than many might realize. He’s made it clear that he primarily trains brazilian jiu jitsu, at his head coach’s gym, Tim Welch. Knowing that he is going into the cage with one of the highest regarded grapplers in bantamweight history, I think O’Malley and Welch smart enough to make submission defense a main focus of his fight camp.

On the other hand, a similar statement could be said about Sterling’s striking. Being a champion, I think he’s also smart enough to understand how dangerous O’Malley is on the feet, and may take a conservative, defensive approach to striking in this fight. His focus should be defending himself at all costs and doing enough to set up takedowns so he can go to work on the mat, while also not forcing them. What I am concerned about for Sterling is that his cardio has shown to be questionable at times against high volume strikers (Petr Yan I) and can lead to him trying to force takedowns. This would be inexcusable against O’Malley in my opinion, who is too precise and accurate, and could easily snipe Sterling on his entry shots. Because of this, I like O’Malley in this one. I think O’Malley’s volume might be a problem for Sterling’s cardio, especially if O’Malley’s takedown defense holds up, and I think that’s a recipe for a KO in a five round fight with Sugar Sean.

Omega’s Pick: Sean O’Malley via 4th Round KO/TKO