Ciryl Gane (2) vs. Sergey Spivak (7)

Heavyweight Bout

For the main event we have a matchup between a slick striking technician in Gane and a well rounded fighter in Sergey Spivak. In my opinion, whoever wins this fight will be in the top tier of heavyweight title contenders, along with Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall. Considering there would then be three contenders that all have a case to be the next title challenger after Jones vs Stipe in at UFC 295 on November 11th, it will be interesting to see what the UFC decides to do with the heavyweight division.

Stylistically, I think Spivak could cause Gane some serious problems. We know that Gane has arguably the best, most technical striking in the heavyweight division, but his glaring weakness is that he has basically no grappling skills whatsoever, which was proven in his last two fights that resulted in a submission loss to Jones and a decision loss to Ngannou (where he was out-wrestled most of the fight). Following his Ngannou loss, I gave Gane the benefit of the doubt. I thought he was a smart enough fighter to make the necessary adjustments to his game and train grappling enough to at least not be a liability if he gets taken down, but boy was I wrong.

The Verdict: Spivac via 2rd round Sub

Manon Fiorot (3) vs. Rose Namajunas (2, SW)

Women’s Flyweight Bout

For the co-main event, previous women’s strawweight champion Rose Namajunas is making her flyweight debut against another skilled striker and upcoming title challenger Manon Fiorot. Rose is making her return from a 15 month layoff after she lost her strawweight belt to Carla Esparza in a split decision loss in a slow, uneventful fight. Fiorot is big for her weight class and will have a significant size advantage on Rose. While I think that Rose is the technically more sound striker when considering her technique and timing, one of Fiorot most impressive characteristics is her striking output; she stays busy, landing an impressive 6.58 significant strikes per minute, compared to Rose’s 3.66. When considering her ability on the mat, Fiorot can effectively control her opponents enough to lead her to a victory as well, as shown in her decision win over Mayra Bueno Silva when the stand-up was not particularly going her way and she managed to adjust and rack up over 4 minutes of control time off of two takedowns. Considering this and the size advantage, I see grappling as a realistic path to victory for Fiorot and could pose a real problem for Rose. I could see Fiorot getting off to a lead early in the fight with her striking due to her high output, then stalling to a victory by controlling the fight in the grappling department.

The Verdict: Fiorot via Decision

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moisés

Lightweight Bout

Benoit Saint-Denis has shown so far in his UFC career that he is a skilled grappler and legit submission threat, with two of his three wins coming from submission stoppages. This includes his last performance, an upset submission win over Ismael Bonfim in July. While grappling might be more of his strong suit, he’s also not a bad striker either. He lands at a rate of 4.11 significant strikes per minute with a decent 50% accuracy, though he does have less than par defense, absorbing 6.14 significant strikes per minute. Thiago Moisés is also a skilled grappler with slick BJJ. He is the much more experienced UFC fighter, with a 6-4 record in the UFC, with his losses coming from quality opponents: Beneil Dariush, Damir Ismagulov, Islam Makhachev and Joel Alvarez. Like Saint-Denis he is also a submission threat, racking up 3 submission wins in the UFC thus far. I think both fighters are comparable in grappling ability, however, Saint-Denis is the more dangerous striker. Moisés’ is slow-paced; his output is pretty low at 2.47 significant strikes landed per minute, though he does have a decent defense of 57% for significant strikes, and absorbs less than Saint-Denis with 3.90 significant strikes per minute. Overall, I’d give Saint-Denis the edge in striking for this one, because its clear that he will likely be willing to throw more than Moisés, and even though his defense is a bit of a liability, I’m not confident that Moisés is a capable enough striker to capitalize on it.

The Verdict: Saint-Denis via Decision

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov

Light Heavyweight Bout

Bogdan Guskov is making his UFC debut against ranked UFC veteran Volkan Oezdemir as a late replacement. Oezdemir was initially supposed to fight undefeated Azamat Murzakanov. Considering Murzakanov is 13-0 professional and 3-0 in the ufc with 2 knockout finishes, this is a step down in the quality of his opponent in my opinion. Guskov is a decently tall light heavyweight at 6’3″ so he will have a mild size advantage on Oezdemir. While I think Oezdemir is a much better athlete, Guskov has shown that he has dangerous power. He has 12 knockouts across his 14-2 professional record. The caveat to this impressive resume and highlight reel knockouts is that the quality of his opponent has lacked extremely hard up to this point of his career. He’s spent his career in promotions that have a questionable quality of talent. At least for the fights I’ve seen in his most recent run in MMA Series Russia, none of his knockouts seemed to be against who posed a challenge. That being said, he’s making a huge step up in competition in his UFC debut against Oezdemir. Oezdemir has been in the cage with some of the best and has even fought for gold at a point. He’s 6-4 in the UFC and has only lost to quality names: Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, Dominic Reyes, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev and Nikita Krylov. Oezdemir has fought all of these people in their primes and I’d say they’re all elite athletes in this division. Even though he’s taken some loses, Oezdemir is 33 and should be in his athletic prime. I think the likelyhood that Guskov is of the caliber of fighter necessary to get past Oezdemir is slim.

The Verdict: Oezdemir via 2nd Round KO/TKO

William Gomis vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

Featherweight Bout

26 year old French prospect William Gomis is a lengthy featherweight, standing at 6’0″ tall with a 73″ reach. He has a professional record of 12-2 and is 2-0 in the UFC so far; most recently winning a split decision over Francis Marshall. Gomis lands at a slow rate of 1.97 significant strikes per minute, though has proven to be quite defensively sound, absorbing only 1.17 significant strikes per minute and defending 81% of significant strikes in his UFC career so far. He has decent takedown accuracy of 60% and takedown defense of 71%, and has relied on his wrestling in previous fights. Yanis Ghemmouri is stepping up as a late replacement after Lucas Almeida pulled out of this fight. Ghemmouri is 12-1 professionally and is making his UFC debut. He’s a pretty well balanced fighter, he’s won a few striking battles and has solid BJJ as well, with 4 submission wins on his record. Gomis will, however, likely has a decent reach advantage considering that Gomis is a few inches shorter at 5’9″. Like Bogdan Guskov, since Ghemmouri is making his debut, it is difficult to assess exactly how he will stack up against a UFC prospect like Gomis, so the outcome of this fight is quite unpredictable in my opinion. Considering that Gomis was preparing for a much more proven fighter in Lucas Almeida however, as well as the size and crowd advantage, and that Gomis hasn’t let us down yet in the UFC, I think its hard to pick against him.

The Verdict: Gomis via Decision